Collected links

1. Scott Alexander reviews Stefano DellaVigna and Devin Pope’s “Predicting Experimental Results” paper with an interesting reference:

   I think that, as in Superforecasting, the best explanation is a separate “rationality” skill which is somewhat predicted by high IQ and scientific training, but not identical to either of them.

   ...

   Another important caveat: predictive tasks are different than interpretative tasks. Ability to predict how an experiment will go without having any data differs from ability to crunch data in a complicated field and conclude that eg saturated fat causes/doesn’t cause heart attacks.

   ...

   The distinction between punditry and expertise is pretty fuzzy.

2. BBC portrait of Hayao Miyazaki

3. Myself When I Am Real – Charles Mingus:

4. Mike Konczal on “Trump in Retrospect”

5. Great visualization by the Economist of Magnus Carlsen against Sergey Karjakin.

6. (In German:) “Ich habe die Bombe nicht gebaut. Ich habe nur gezeigt, dass es sie gibt.”

7. Aljazeera: “Saxony: Germany’s failed state?”

8. Erik Bernhardsson on the decay of codes bases: “The half-life of code & the ship of Theseus”.

9. Aeon on the fear of losing home